What’s next for China: the shifts to plan your research around

In 30 seconds

China’s economy is the world’s second largest and has moved into a slower, more mature phase. A shrinking population, careful consumers, fast-moving technology and growth beyond the big coastal cities will shape what people buy and how you should study them.

Four shifts

1. Fewer, older people. The population fell for the fourth year running in 2025, births hit 7.92 million, the lowest in decades, and almost a quarter of people are over 60. Expect a smaller youth market and a fast-growing one for health, finance, travel and products for later life.

2. Careful spending. Growth of about 5% is healthy by global standards but far below the boom years. A long property downturn, where most household wealth sits, has made families more cautious. Value matters more, though people still pay for what they care about. Technology replacing jobs in areas such as banking and ticketing adds to the sense of insecurity.

3. Technology at speed. China leads the world in electric vehicles and is investing heavily in batteries, renewables, robotics and AI. New products reach mass use quickly, and so do new expectations.

4. Beyond the coast. Two-thirds of people now live in cities, and growth is spreading to smaller and inland cities with rising incomes and lower costs. Their consumers can differ sharply from Shanghai’s.

What goes wrong, and the fix

In the research	Do this instead
Samples skewed young and top-tier	Include older consumers and lower-tier cities
Pricing research from two years ago	Re-test value perceptions often
Assuming yesterday’s leader still leads	Refresh the competitive set every wave

Try this

Add one lower-tier city to your next study as a test cell. The differences from Shanghai or Beijing often justify a bigger role next time.

Takeaway: in China, research has a short shelf life. Plan to refresh it.

Back to: Inside China overview.

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